1 Introduction to Probability

Probability Space (Ω,F,P)

  • Ω is some space, representing the set of all outcomes.
  • F is a σ− algebra (σ− field) on Ω, representing a set of subsets of Ω satisfying certain properties.
  • P is probability measure.

σ− algebra of Measurable Sets

Given a set S, F⊂P(S) is called a σ− algebra on S if

  • ∅,S∈F;
  • A∈F⇒Ac∈F;
  • (Closed under countable union) Ai∈F,i∈N⇒⋃i=1∞Ai∈F.

A∈F is called F− measurable.

Examples

F={∅,S}; F=P(S). They are respectively smallest/largest σ− algebra.

Measurable Space, Measure

(S,F) (F is a σ− algebra on S) is a measurable space.
A non-negative set function μ:F→[0,∞] is called a measure on (S,F), if

  • μ(∅)=0;
  • ∀Ai∈F,i∈N s.t. Ai∩Aj=∅. If i≠j, μ(⋃i=1∞Ai)=∑i=1∞μ(Ai).
  1. (S,F,μ) is called a measure space.
  2. If μ(S)=1, μ is called a probability measure, often denoted by P.
  3. Specifying (S,F) constrains the possible measure that can be defined on it. See example below.
Example

Consider a measure λ on (R,P(R)) satisfying

  • λ([a,b])=b−a,b>a;
  • λ(x+A)=λ(A),x∈R,A∈P(R).

Then ∃V∈P(R) for which λ(V) cannot be defined consistently, like Vitally set. I.e. not Lebesgue measurable.
For example, consider a unit ball B⊂R3 and drop a point x u.a.r on B. For any subset A⊂B, we can't define P(x∈A)=Volume(A)43π. By Banach-Tarski Theorem, some A∈P(B) are not Lebesgue measurable.